Bitcoin Steadies Ahead of Fed Cut; Gemini IPO Pops; Institutions Rotate Back Into BTC

Bitcoin held firm around $114K this week as softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, Gemini’s Nasdaq debut surged above $40 per share, valuing the exchange at $4.75 billion. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $553 million in inflows on Thursday, extending a four-day streak as institutions rotated back to BTC. Galaxy Digital added over $530 million in Solana, fueling the “Solana Season” narrative, while Cboe unveiled plans to launch continuous bitcoin and ether futures, marking its latest push into regulated crypto derivatives.

Bitcoin Holds $114K as Rate Cut Bets Firm After CPI Data

Crypto markets steadied this week after U.S. inflation data came in broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in September. Headline CPI rose 2.9% year over year, while core inflation held at 3.1%, both consistent with forecasts. The print followed a cooler Producer Price Index earlier in the week, cementing expectations of monetary easing.

Polymarket odds implied an 88% probability of a 25 bps cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting, with CME FedWatch showing fading expectations for a more aggressive 50 bps move. The Federal Open Market Committee last cut rates in December 2024, bringing the target range to 4.25%–4.50%. Traders now see a measured but clear pivot ahead, supporting risk appetite across asset classes.

Price action reflected the cautiously bullish mood. Bitcoin held the $113,000–$114,000 band flagged by analysts as a key “bullish gate,” while Ether hovered above $4,400. ETF flows added to optimism, with $757 million flowing into spot bitcoin products and $172 million into ether funds earlier in the week. Analysts say another soft inflation print could accelerate the risk-on rotation and push BTC toward its all-time high.

Gemini IPO Pops Above $40, Valuation Hits $4.75B

Gemini made a strong Nasdaq debut as shares of its parent company, Gemini Space Station (ticker: GEMI), surged above $40 on Friday, temporarily valuing the exchange at around $4.75 billion. The firm raised $425 million in its IPO, selling 15 million shares at $28 each, well above its initial $24–$26 pricing range.

The opening day rally mirrors other crypto IPOs this year, including Figure and Circle, and comes as public listings gain traction across the industry. Gemini joins Coinbase and Bullish as U.S.-listed exchanges, with Kraken and BitGo also eyeing listings. Despite the strong debut, Gemini disclosed a $282.5 million net loss for H1 2025, highlighting persistent profitability challenges.

Founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss will retain over 94% of voting control post-IPO. In media interviews, the twins framed the listing as the next step in Gemini’s decade-long evolution from a bitcoin-only exchange to a multi-asset platform with 100+ tokens. They also used the occasion to promote Gemini’s crypto-backed credit card, underscoring the exchange’s push to expand into consumer financial products.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $553M Inflows as Institutions Rotate Back In

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $552.8 million in net inflows on Thursday, marking the fourth straight day of positive flows and totaling $1.7 billion over the week. BlackRock’s IBIT led the surge with $366 million, followed by $135 million into Fidelity’s FBTC and $40 million into Bitwise’s BITB. Other issuers also reported gains.

The flows signal renewed institutional confidence after a weak August, when bitcoin ETFs lost $751 million even as ether ETFs saw $3.9 billion in inflows. The reversal highlights capital rotation back toward BTC as macro conditions stabilize and ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Analysts noted that Ethereum funds logged $113 million in inflows on the same day, pointing to broad recovery across majors.

Bitcoin rose 1% to $115,455 while Ether gained nearly 3% to $4,553, lifting the total crypto market cap by 1.8%. Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said continued ETF demand could push BTC past its prior highs, tightening liquidity and boosting momentum. CME FedWatch now assigns a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, reinforcing the supportive backdrop for risk assets.

Galaxy Adds $530M in Solana as Treasury Trend Expands

Onchain data shows Galaxy Digital acquired over $530 million worth of Solana this week, in what may be one of the largest single-day transactions tied to a corporate treasury strategy. The firm received 2.3 million SOL across major exchanges, though it has not yet confirmed the purpose of the transfers.

The move followed Galaxy’s participation in a $1.65 billion private placement for Forward Industries, a company pivoting into a Solana treasury structure with support from Jump Crypto and Multicoin Capital. Forward’s stock has rallied more than 130% over the past week, reflecting growing market enthusiasm around Solana-based corporate treasuries.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz called this period a “season of Solana,” citing institutional flows, ETF filings, and regulatory clarity as catalysts. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also pointed to Solana’s efficiency advantages over Ethereum as a driver of treasury and investor adoption. SOL is up 6% in 24 hours to $236, surpassing BNB to become the fifth-largest cryptocurrency with a $126 billion market cap.

Cboe to Launch 10-Year Continuous Bitcoin and Ether Futures

Cboe Global Markets announced plans to list continuous bitcoin and ether futures starting November 10, pending regulatory approval. Unlike traditional contracts that require frequent rolling, continuous futures are structured as long-dated instruments — up to 10 years — with daily cash adjustments aligned to spot prices.

The exchange described the new products as “perpetual-style” futures designed to bring the utility of offshore markets into a U.S.-regulated framework. Contracts will be cleared through Cboe Clear U.S., a CFTC-regulated entity, with pricing based on a transparent funding-rate methodology. Cboe expects the instruments to appeal to both institutional traders and advanced retail investors.

Cboe first launched bitcoin futures in 2017 but withdrew them in 2019 due to low demand. Its re-entry highlights renewed appetite for regulated crypto derivatives as institutions seek longer-duration hedging tools. Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives, said the initiative reflects strong client demand for efficient exposure, adding that Cboe aims to position itself as the leading U.S. hub for crypto futures.