Crypto markets enter the week under renewed macro pressure, with risk appetite fading across both digital assets and related equities. Rising political uncertainty in the U.S., softer institutional flows, and growing signs of loss realization on-chain are weighing on sentiment. At the same time, structural activity continues beneath the surface, from bank licensing efforts and custody IPOs to aggressive balance-sheet accumulation by bitcoin treasury firms. The divergence highlights a market increasingly driven by macro conditions and capital structure rather than momentum alone.
Bitcoin slides below $87K as macro risk-off sentiment takes hold
Bitcoin extended its recent pullback late Sunday, slipping toward $87,000 as broader risk-off sentiment rippled through global markets. Ethereum underperformed on a relative basis, falling more than 3% over the same period. Analysts attributed the move less to crypto-specific catalysts and more to rising macro uncertainty, particularly escalating concerns around a potential U.S. government shutdown.
Political risk has re-entered the equation as funding negotiations in Congress stall, pushing implied shutdown probabilities on prediction markets toward 75%. That uncertainty has translated into pressure across risk assets, with crypto once again trading in tight correlation with broader macro sentiment rather than internal fundamentals.
From an institutional perspective, the pullback is being closely monitored for signs of stabilization. Analysts point to ETF flow normalization and bitcoin’s ability to hold recent support levels as near-term signals. With a Federal Reserve rate decision and U.S. producer price data ahead, macro developments are expected to remain the dominant driver of price action.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs post worst weekly outflows since early 2025
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.33 billion in net outflows over a shortened four-day trading week, marking their weakest performance since February 2025. The reversal follows a strong prior week of inflows and reflects a rapid shift in investor positioning amid renewed volatility and macro uncertainty.
Outflows were heavily concentrated midweek, with a single-day drawdown exceeding $700 million. Large flagship funds accounted for a significant share of the redemptions, signaling broad-based de-risking rather than isolated rebalancing. Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern, shedding more than $600 million as sentiment softened across major assets.
Despite the drawdown, cumulative ETF inflows since launch remain substantial, and total assets under management are still near historical highs. Analysts note that the current episode resembles prior transition phases where profit-taking gives way to loss realization, a dynamic increasingly visible in on-chain data as holders begin crystallizing losses for the first time since late 2023.
Revolut pivots toward U.S. banking charter as crypto-fintech convergence deepens
Revolut is preparing to apply for a de novo national banking charter in the U.S., signaling a strategic shift away from acquiring an existing lender. The move reflects a recalibration toward regulatory clarity and long-term market access rather than speed, as the firm navigates the increasingly complex U.S. financial landscape.
The decision follows changes at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which has recently granted conditional licenses to several crypto-native and digital asset infrastructure firms. Revolut’s approach suggests growing confidence that regulated digital-first institutions can obtain banking approval without legacy branch networks.
The fintech giant has simultaneously expanded its crypto footprint in Europe, securing a MiCA license and launching its crypto exchange product across multiple markets. Together, these moves underscore how large fintech platforms are positioning themselves at the intersection of traditional banking and regulated digital asset services.
UBS explores direct crypto trading for private banking clients
UBS is reportedly preparing to offer cryptocurrency trading to select private banking clients, marking a potential expansion beyond tokenization pilots and indirect exposure. While the scope would initially be limited, the move would represent one of the most direct steps yet by a global wealth manager into spot crypto markets.
Historically, UBS has favored blockchain-based financial products such as tokenized money market funds and infrastructure-driven use cases. Allowing private clients to trade crypto directly would signal rising demand among high-net-worth investors for regulated, bank-facilitated access to digital assets.
The initiative aligns with a broader industry trend as large banks cautiously expand crypto services under improving regulatory clarity. Rather than pursuing retail-scale offerings, institutions continue to prioritize controlled access, custody integration, and capital-efficient structures.
BitGo’s IPO debut highlights volatility in crypto infrastructure valuations
BitGo’s public market debut delivered a sharp but short-lived rally, with shares surging more than 30% intraday before closing only modestly above their IPO price. The move reflects both pent-up demand for crypto infrastructure listings and continued uncertainty around valuation durability.
The offering raised over $200 million and valued the firm at more than $2 billion, marking the first major crypto-related IPO of 2026. BitGo operates squarely in institutional plumbing, providing custody, settlement, and wallet infrastructure rather than consumer-facing trading services.
The volatile debut underscores a broader theme: while regulatory conditions are stabilizing, public market investors remain selective. Several crypto infrastructure firms are reportedly considering listings later this year, but pricing discipline and post-IPO performance will likely shape the pace of new issuance.
Thailand moves toward crypto ETFs and regulated derivatives
Thailand’s securities regulator is preparing a new framework to support crypto ETFs and futures trading, signaling a shift toward a more structured and growth-oriented regulatory regime. The proposed rules would allow crypto assets to be recognized as an underlying class under the country’s derivatives legislation.
Regulators highlighted ETFs as an attractive vehicle for investors, offering exposure without custody or security risks. Futures products would trade on the Thailand Futures Exchange, providing hedging and risk-management tools currently unavailable to local participants.
The move comes as authorities tighten oversight across the digital asset ecosystem, particularly around stablecoin flows. Together, these efforts suggest Thailand is positioning itself for regulated expansion rather than speculative growth.
Strategy doubles down on bitcoin accumulation despite shrinking valuation premium
Strategy acquired more than 22,000 bitcoin in its largest weekly purchase since 2024, bringing total holdings above 709,000 BTC. The purchases were funded through a mix of equity issuance and multiple preferred stock programs, reinforcing the firm’s highly structured capital strategy.
At current prices, Strategy controls more than 3.3% of bitcoin’s total supply, with paper gains exceeding $10 billion. However, the company’s market valuation now trades below the value of its underlying bitcoin holdings, reflecting investor concerns around dilution and capital efficiency.
Analysts expect Strategy to continue accumulating aggressively in 2026, though with increasing reliance on equity and preferred instruments. The model remains resilient by design, but the widening gap between asset value and equity pricing highlights growing scrutiny of bitcoin treasury strategies as a standalone investment thesis.
At Finery Markets, we continue to monitor how evolving regulatory frameworks, monetary policy shifts, and new market infrastructure are shaping digital asset adoption globally. Follow us for deeper insights into institutional flows, stablecoin strategies, and trading technology innovation. This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or other professional advice.
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