Bitcoin Retakes $100,000 Amid Speculation on Pro-Crypto Policies Under Trump

TL;DR

• Bitcoin surged over $104,000, fueled by speculation that President-elect Donald Trump might prioritize crypto policy with an executive order. Reports suggest plans for a national Bitcoin reserve and a crypto advisory council.
• Crypto market maker Wintermute saw a 313% rise in OTC trading volumes, driven by institutional demand and regulatory clarity. The report predicts further market growth through ETFs and tokenization.
• OTC bitcoin trading on Coinbase Prime has surged, reflecting increased institutional interest. Analysts highlight connections to ETF inflows and bullish options market activity.
• December’s CPI data boosted market sentiment, with Bitcoin rebounding above $100,000. Anticipation of pro-crypto reforms under the incoming Trump administration is also driving positive outlooks.
• XRP hit $3.29, driven by ETF approval optimism, a more favorable regulatory climate, and growing institutional adoption. Ripple’s leadership expects significant regulatory shifts under the new SEC chair.
• BlackRock launched its iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF on Cboe Canada, signaling growing global demand for crypto ETFs. The expansion builds on its US success and bolsters Bitcoin’s institutional adoption.

Bitcoin Rises Above $100,000 as Bloomberg Reports Upcoming Pro-Crypto Executive Order

Bitcoin surged on Friday, climbing over 4% to over $104,000, amid speculation that President-elect Donald Trump may issue an executive order prioritizing crypto policy on his first day in office. Major trading platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood saw their shares rise 5% and 4%, respectively, as smaller-cap cryptocurrencies gained traction, with Litecoin jumping 26% over the past two days.

The rally was fueled by reports from Bloomberg and the New York Times suggesting that Trump could establish a crypto advisory council and even discuss creating a national Bitcoin reserve. While Wall Street analysts note that pro-crypto policies from a supportive Congress and White House could take time to impact the market, Bitcoin investors are optimistic about the potential for regulatory clarity and innovation under the new administration. Bitcoin ETFs have already seen inflows exceeding $1 billion in the past two days, and many expect further gains, potentially surpassing its all-time high of $108,327 set in December.

Wintermute Reports 313% Growth in OTC Volumes Amid Institutional Demand Surge

Wintermute, a crypto market maker, revealed that its OTC trading volumes skyrocketed by 313% in 2024, fueled by unprecedented institutional demand. This growth far outpaced the overall crypto exchange market, which expanded by 142% last year. The number of trades surged 250% compared to 2023, and a single-day record of $2.24 billion in OTC trade volume underscored the rising appetite among traditional finance players. Key catalysts, such as the approval of spot crypto ETFs and greater regulatory clarity, significantly lowered barriers for institutional participation.

The report also highlighted a 300% increase in OTC derivatives trading, driven by institutions seeking sophisticated tools for yield optimization and risk management. Memecoins emerged as a surprising area of interest, with their share in Wintermute's OTC spot volumes climbing to 16.2% from 7.3% in 2023. Looking ahead, CEO Evgeny Gaevoy expects crypto to integrate deeper into global financial systems through ETFs, tokenization, and structured products. The report anticipates reduced market volatility in 2025, further expansion of ETF offerings—including memecoin-focused ETFs—and regulatory tailwinds from the incoming pro-crypto administration under President-elect Donald Trump.

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Coinbase Prime Sees Surge in Institutional Bitcoin OTC Trading

Coinbase Prime has reported a significant uptick in over-the-counter (OTC) trading activity, signaling heightened interest from institutional investors. According to CryptoQuant, recent inflows into Coinbase Prime Brokerage Service—often a preferred channel for U.S. institutions—suggest a wave of OTC bitcoin accumulation. The inflows coincide with bitcoin's approach to its recent high of $108,000 in December, with OTC flows reaching $14 billion, representing around 142,000 BTC. Analysts interpret this as a strong signal of institutional demand for bitcoin, further evidenced by its growing use in spot ETFs, many of which source bitcoin from Coinbase.

Market dynamics also reflect this renewed interest. CF Benchmarks noted a shift in the bitcoin options market, with increased implied volatility (IV) for long-dated out-of-the-money (OTM) calls on the CME. Analysts link this to bullish sentiment, as investors seek to capitalize on potential upside. Speculation around regulatory shifts under President-elect Donald Trump has also contributed to recent price fluctuations, with short-term downside hedging demand declining as optimism for favorable crypto policies grows.

Cooling Inflation Boosts Crypto Markets Ahead of Trump Administration

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in December, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This cooling inflation data has fueled optimism in crypto markets, raising expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting strategy in 2025. The positive sentiment follows a challenging start to the year, with last week's strong jobs report weighing on markets. Bitcoin responded to the inflation news by surging back above $100,000 on Wednesday, a significant rebound after dipping below $90,000 earlier in the week. Ethereum also gained over 5%, nearing $3,400.

Investor enthusiasm is further buoyed by anticipation of pro-crypto reforms under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. A Reuters report suggests that regulatory changes, including SEC clarifications on crypto classifications and enforcement case reviews, could begin next week. With SEC Chair Gary Gensler set to step down, pro-crypto advocate Paul Atkins is expected to take the helm, potentially signaling a new era of regulatory clarity and support for digital assets.

XRP Rallies 46%, Eyes Institutional Growth Amid ETF Hopes and Regulatory Shifts

Ripple's XRP has surged 46% over the past week, reaching $3.29 and solidifying its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at $176.75 billion. The rally is fueled by optimism surrounding a more favorable regulatory climate, the launch of Ripple’s stablecoin, and anticipated approval of an XRP ETF in 2025. Open interest in XRP perpetual futures has hit an all-time high of $2.34 billion, with leveraged bets easing to 13%, indicating a healthier market poised for potential near-term gains.

The price momentum comes as Ripple navigates ongoing regulatory battles, including an appeal filed by the SEC against a July ruling that partially favored the company in determining XRP's classification under securities laws. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse dismissed the SEC's actions, expressing confidence in a pro-crypto shift under incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who is expected to implement significant changes to crypto regulation. Ripple’s legal chief, Stuart Alderoty, echoed this optimism, emphasizing that the company is thriving amid growing institutional adoption of its cross-border payment solutions.

BlackRock Expands Bitcoin ETF Offering to Canada Amid Growing Global Demand

BlackRock has launched the iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF in Canada, trading under the ticker IBIT on Cboe Canada. The ETF, available in Canadian dollars (IBIT) and US dollars (IBIT.U), builds on the success of its US counterpart, offering accessibility through both discount and full-service brokerage platforms. Cboe Canada, which handles approximately 15% of trading in Canadian-listed securities, will facilitate trading for the new product.

This launch follows BlackRock's record-breaking debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US last year, which played a key role in Bitcoin's rise to six-figure valuations. The expansion into Canada underscores the growing demand for crypto ETFs and highlights the sector's momentum heading into 2025. The move signals BlackRock’s commitment to broadening access to Bitcoin investment products as the crypto ETF market continues its global ascent.