Fragile Bitcoin rebound, renewed ETF inflows, and stablecoin shake-up

After one of the sharpest drawdowns of the year, crypto markets showed tentative signs of stabilization into the U.S. Thanksgiving week. Bitcoin reclaimed the $90K handle after briefly erasing all of its 2025 gains, while spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs posted their first combined week of net inflows since October. Under the surface, structural shifts continued: China reiterated its hard line on digital assets and stablecoins, Visa expanded its stablecoin settlement footprint across CEMEA, BitMine doubled down on Ethereum accumulation, and S&P flagged rising reserve risks at Tether.

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Bitcoin reclaims $90K, but recovery remains fragile

Bitcoin bounced back above $90,000 after a two-week slide that took the asset as low as $81,000 and briefly wiped out its year-to-date gains. The move follows a 29% drawdown from October’s all-time high near $126,000, leaving BTC still deeply below its recent peak but no longer in free fall. Trading activity has remained elevated, with prior liquidations and wider risk-off sentiment still weighing on market structure.

Analysts point to a combination of waning liquidity, lingering macro uncertainty, and fading institutional participation as drivers of the November slump. Confusion over whether the Federal Reserve will deliver a third rate cut this year has kept the path of policy unclear, eroding one of the key historical supports for risk assets. The October liquidation shock that wiped out a record $19 billion in open interest also left derivatives markets more fragile, amplifying moves in both directions as leverage slowly rebuilds.

The latest rebound has brought relief across majors, with Ethereum reclaiming the $3,000 area, Solana trading in the mid-$140s, and large-cap names like XRP and Dogecoin also ticking higher. Still, analysts stress that the setup looks more like an attempt to carve out a base than the start of a fresh impulse rally. Whether this bounce extends into December will hinge on Fed communication, incoming macro data, and the durability of the nascent improvement in ETF flows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs log first joint inflow week since October

For the Thanksgiving-shortened week ending November 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their first combined net inflow week since late October, hinting at a potential inflection in institutional sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $70 million of net inflows across four trading days, while spot Ethereum ETFs drew a much stronger $313 million, extending their daily inflow streak to five sessions. This follows several weeks of heavy redemptions that had erased more than $4.3 billion from Bitcoin products and around $500 million from Ether funds.

Flows were not uniformly positive. Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB and Fidelity’s FBTC led Bitcoin inflows on Friday, while BlackRock’s flagship IBIT ETF still posted weekly net outflows of about $137 million, despite isolated positive days. IBIT remains the dominant Bitcoin ETF by AUM, holding approximately $70.7 billion in BTC — about 3.9% of circulating supply — but the leadership in marginal flows has become more distributed. On the Ethereum side, BlackRock’s ETHA product captured the bulk of demand, accounting for more than 80% of weekly inflows into spot Ether ETFs.

Solana ETPs also showed resilience after breaking a 21-day inflow streak with a mid-week outflow. The segment quickly reversed course with modest net inflows led by Grayscale’s GSOL and Fidelity’s FSOL, offsetting redemptions at 21Shares’ TSOL. Overall, last week’s flows mark a clear improvement from the prior period, which ranked among the three worst outflow runs since 2019 for global crypto ETPs. Whether the stabilization continues will depend on how quickly risk appetite recovers and how ETFs respond to further macro shocks.

China reiterates full crypto ban, highlights stablecoin risks

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reaffirmed its uncompromising stance on digital assets following a multi-agency meeting focused on renewed speculation in crypto markets. In a statement, the PBoC reiterated that “virtual currencies” do not have the legal status of fiat, cannot be used as money, and would remain subject to strict enforcement actions. The central bank framed its 2021 bans on trading and mining as having “rectified the chaos” in the domestic market and pledged to “severely crack down” on any resurgence of activity.

Stablecoins drew particular scrutiny. The PBoC flagged them as high-risk instruments that fall short of KYC and AML expectations, posing threats from money laundering and illegal cross-border flows to underground financial networks. Officials warned that unchecked stablecoin use could undermine financial security, especially if used to bypass capital controls or facilitate speculative bubbles. The comments align with prior remarks from former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who cautioned earlier this year about the systemic risk of overusing stablecoins for asset speculation.

The renewed rhetoric comes amid a nuanced regional picture. Hong Kong has actively pursued a regulated digital asset hub strategy, creating licensing regimes for exchanges and stablecoin issuers. Yet Beijing has reportedly pressured some financial institutions to pause tokenization initiatives and stablecoin plans even in that jurisdiction. In parallel, China continues to scale its digital yuan pilot, which has already seen hundreds of millions of personal wallets opened, underscoring that policymakers favor state-controlled digital money over open crypto networks.

Visa and Aquanow expand stablecoin settlement across CEMEA

Visa deepened its stablecoin strategy with a new partnership with Aquanow to extend stablecoin settlement services across Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (CEMEA). The integration will allow issuers and acquirers in the region to settle transactions in approved stablecoins such as USDC, offering 365-day settlement and bypassing weekend and holiday constraints associated with traditional banking rails. For many regional institutions, this represents a first step into blockchain-based settlement under the umbrella of a familiar network.

The move builds on Visa’s early experiments with USDC settlement, which have now scaled to an annualized run rate of roughly $2.5 billion, according to recent earnings commentary. Visa has signaled plans to support multiple stablecoins across several blockchains, and the Aquanow partnership complements the firm’s broader regional push, including previous work with Zodia Custody and a regulatory footprint via local VASP licenses. The strategy is explicitly framed as “modernizing back-end rails” rather than displacing existing card infrastructure.

For CEMEA institutions, the combination of Visa’s compliance stack and Aquanow’s crypto infrastructure lowers the barriers to experimenting with stablecoin-based settlement. It also positions Visa as a key intermediary between banks, fintechs, and on-chain liquidity, reinforcing the narrative that regulated stablecoins are becoming embedded in mainstream payment flows rather than remaining a purely trading-centric product.

BitMine adds 14.6K ETH as it targets 5% of supply

Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies added another 14,618 ETH to its corporate holdings, according to on-chain data attributed to a BitGo-sourced wallet. The purchase, worth around $44 million, follows a previously announced $200 million addition and brings BitMine’s official stash to more than 3.6 million ETH, or roughly 3% of total supply. The company has repeatedly stated its ambition to accumulate 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply as part of a long-term conviction bet on the network’s role in financial markets.

Chair Tom Lee has positioned Ethereum as the chain most likely to be favored by Wall Street and policymakers due to its perceived neutrality and programmable infrastructure. In recent interviews, he forecast that ETH could bottom near $2,500 before moving toward $7,000–$9,000 by January 2026, arguing that macro conditions and a turn in Fed policy will eventually reprice the asset higher. Lee maintains a similarly constructive view on Bitcoin, projecting a potential move above $100,000 once rate clarity improves.

The purchases stand in contrast to broader market jitters but align with BitMine’s stated strategy of using cyclical drawdowns to build inventory. With the firm now controlling a treasury rivaling that of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders in relative supply terms, its balance sheet is increasingly intertwined with Ethereum’s long-term trajectory — and vice versa.

S&P downgrades Tether’s stability assessment to weakest tier

S&P Global Ratings downgraded its stability assessment of Tether’s USDT to 5, the lowest rating on its internal scale, citing rising exposure to riskier reserve assets and insufficient buffer against a Bitcoin drawdown. The agency estimated that BTC now represents about 5.6% of USDT’s backing, exceeding the roughly 3.9% reserve buffer implied by Tether’s Q3 attestation. S&P warned that a sharp decline in Bitcoin, especially if combined with losses in other volatile holdings, could leave the stablecoin undercollateralized.

Beyond Bitcoin, S&P highlighted that higher-risk assets — including gold, secured loans, corporate credit, and other opaque investments — have climbed to 24% of reserves from 17% a year earlier. It criticized ongoing gaps in transparency around custodians, counterparties, and asset composition, as well as the lack of structural safeguards commonly seen in regulated money-market funds, such as segregated reserves and standardized redemption mechanisms. While a significant portion of reserves remains in short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, the rating agency argued that the overall structure still exposes holders to issuer and market risk.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino dismissed the assessment, calling S&P’s framework a relic of a “broken financial system” and asserting that Tether is “overcapitalized” and “extremely profitable.” Despite the downgrade, USDT remains the dominant U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoin with a circulating supply near $185 billion, far ahead of Circle’s USDC at under $75 billion. S&P left the door open to a future upgrade if Tether reduces its high-risk exposures and significantly improves disclosure, but the move underscores growing regulatory and investor focus on reserve quality as stablecoins become embedded in global payments and credit rails.

ETF inflows hint at a base as Bitcoin faces “first real institutional stress test”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $129 million in net inflows on November 25, one of the first notable positive flow days after weeks of redemptions. Ethereum and Solana funds added another $79 million and $58 million, respectively, suggesting a selective rotation back into liquid large caps. The flows helped Bitcoin hold support in the $84,000–$90,000 range, even as on-chain data shows roughly one-third of the supply still sitting at a loss.

Analysts at BRN Research and CF Benchmarks framed the current period as Bitcoin’s “first real institutional stress test,” with ETF infrastructure accelerating both access and price discovery during drawdowns. November is tracking as the worst month on record for ETF flows, yet market observers categorize the selling as profit-taking rather than capitulation. The asset has moved from around $60,000 last November to $126,000 at this year’s peak, providing ample room for rebalancing even as long-term holders and some institutions continue to accumulate on weakness.

Key risks remain. Upcoming macro prints — including PPI, PCE, retail sales, and labor data — will land in a compressed window, creating scope for sharp shifts in rate expectations. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and holiday-thinned liquidity raise the odds that otherwise standard releases produce outsized market moves. Analysts argue that reclaiming the $92,000 area and sustaining cross-asset ETF inflows would confirm that a medium-term floor is forming; failure to do so could reopen the lower end of the recent range.

Kraken’s Krak app pushes toward full “bank alternative” as IPO momentum builds

Kraken began rolling out a suite of new features for its Krak money app — including a cashback debit card, salary deposit functionality, and onchain yield “Vaults” — positioning the product as a borderless alternative to traditional bank accounts and neobanks. Since launching in June as a Venmo/PayPal-style payments app, Krak has reached more than 450,000 downloads in over 130 countries and now supports sending over 400 fiat and crypto assets to more than 160 countries.

The new Mastercard-powered Krak Card will initially launch in the UK and EU, enabling users to spend from multiple balances in real time without FX or monthly fees and to earn 1% cashback in fiat or Bitcoin. In parallel, Krak’s Vaults product will route funds into audited DeFi lending strategies with targeted yields north of 10% APY, while upcoming salary deposits will allow wages to be paid directly into the app via local accounts and IBANs. Kraken emphasizes that client fiat is safeguarded one-to-one at regulated banks under its EMI licenses and that crypto assets are fully reserved, distinguishing the model from fractional-reserve banking.

The push comes as Kraken strengthens its institutional profile. The firm recently raised $800 million across two funding rounds, including a $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities, valuing the company at $20 billion. Kraken has also confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the U.S. SEC for a potential IPO. With a MiCA license in the EU and a long-standing FCA presence in the UK, the Krak app sits at the intersection of consumer fintech, DeFi yield, and regulated exchange infrastructure — a combination Kraken is betting can capture share from both banks and first-generation neobanks.

At Finery Markets, we continue to monitor how evolving regulatory frameworks, monetary policy shifts, and new market infrastructure are shaping digital asset adoption globally. Follow us for deeper insights into institutional flows, stablecoin strategies, and trading technology innovation. This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or other professional advice.