Crypto entered a consolidation phase as bitcoin stabilized in the mid-$80Ks after another burst of thin-liquidity volatility. With ETF flows cooling, derivatives leverage resetting, and macro expectations shifting toward 2026, price discovery is increasingly being driven by positioning rather than fresh directional conviction.
At the same time, the infrastructure layer kept moving: regulated market access tightened in the UK, Visa expanded USDC settlement in the U.S., and policy work advanced on stablecoin payments and staking taxation. Onchain markets also showed a familiar pattern: capital rotating quickly toward incentive-rich venues as competition in perpetual DEXs heats up.
Welcome to a new week in crypto.
Bitcoin steadies near $86K as macro and Fed path dominate positioning
Bitcoin held around $86.6K after swinging toward $90K and back below $86K, a move consistent with thin liquidity and a market still digesting reduced ETF support and derivatives deleveraging. The near-term tape looks less seasonal and more structural: flows cooled after a strong run, and traders appear to be waiting for a clearer liquidity catalyst.
Both desk and macro narratives are converging on a similar point: crypto is entering 2026 with elevated uncertainty around rates, growth, and risk appetite. With markets broadly pricing no January cut, attention is shifting to the forward guidance implied by leadership change risk and how quickly policy could turn more supportive.
Technically, the market is still grinding above key “floor” zones, but the message is straightforward: hold the True Market Mean area (~$81K) and the base-building case stays alive; lose it and downside reflexivity increases.
Tokenized gold crosses $4B as “onchain safe haven” demand grows
Gold-backed stablecoins surpassed $4B in market cap — nearly triple since early 2025 — tracking gold’s strong ~66% YTD performance and rising demand for risk-off exposure that remains liquid and transferable onchain.
Market structure is highly concentrated: XAUt (~$2.2B) and PAXG (~$1.5B) represent close to 90% of supply, with XAUt now leading after aggressive expansion this year. For investors, these products are increasingly used as a “parking asset” during volatility without fully exiting crypto-native rails.
A notable signal is issuer behavior: Tether’s reported accumulation (adding 26 tons in Q3, ~116 tons total) reinforces a broader thesis that stablecoin firms are evolving into meaningful allocators across real-world reserve assets — a trend that could reshape how institutions think about collateral quality and diversification.
Bybit returns to the UK under FCA promotion rules
Bybit has re-entered the UK with spot and P2P services, offering ~100 trading pairs under an FCA financial-promotion compliance approach via an arrangement with Archax as a promotion approver.
The timing matters: FCA-commissioned research indicates ~8% of UK adults hold crypto (~5.5M people), and centralized exchanges remain the dominant access point (~73% of respondents). That demand backdrop increases the value of compliant distribution channels — even for firms not directly FCA-authorized.
The key institutional takeaway is that market access in the UK is increasingly about promotion governance + controls (AML/KYC + disclosure standards), not just product breadth. The “compliance wrapper” is becoming a competitive differentiator.
Visa brings USDC settlement to U.S. banks on Solana
Visa is rolling out USDC settlement in the U.S. over Solana, with Cross River Bank and Lead Bank among early participants, expanding further through 2026. The message is clear: stablecoin settlement is moving from pilots to bank-ready treasury workflows.
This follows Visa’s broader stablecoin push, including a new advisory practice, creator payouts, and deeper involvement with Circle’s Arc L1 (including validator plans). Post-GENIUS Act, incumbents are racing to define compliant rails as the sector targets $2T by 2028.
Solana’s selection is also telling. Institutional experimentation is clustering where throughput and cost profiles support high-frequency settlement, while infra upgrades (e.g., new validator clients) aim to reduce execution risk under stress.
Hyperliquid sees $430M weekly outflows as perp DEX competition intensifies
Hyperliquid recorded >$430M in weekly outflows and a TVL decline toward ~$4B, alongside a ~20% weekly drop in HYPE during a broader market pullback. While flows don’t reveal intent, the pattern fits a market rotating toward new incentive curves.
Competitors like Lighter and Aster are compressing Hyperliquid’s lead, with points programs and token expectations pulling volume. Lighter’s potential TGE remains a major narrative catalyst (with Polymarket pricing elevated odds), while Aster’s growth has been volatile amid wash-trading allegations and airdrop delays.
Bottom line: perp DEX leadership is no longer “winner-take-all by default.” As distribution becomes incentive-driven, venues will need to defend share through execution quality, risk controls, and durable liquidity, not just rewards.
House PARITY draft proposes stablecoin de minimis and staking tax compromise
A bipartisan draft (Miller / Horsford) would exempt regulated USD stablecoin transactions under $200 from capital gains reporting, reducing friction for everyday payments. The carveout is narrow by design: it does not extend to other crypto assets.
On staking, the proposal offers a middle path: elective deferral for five years, then ordinary income taxation at fair market value, positioned between immediate taxation upon receipt and full deferral until sale.
The broader package also extends TradFi-style guardrails (wash sale, constructive sale) to digital assets, signaling that the policy direction is to normalize crypto within existing tax architecture while carving out targeted usability upgrades for stablecoin payments.
At Finery Markets, we continue to monitor how evolving regulatory frameworks, monetary policy shifts, and new market infrastructure are shaping digital asset adoption globally. Follow us for deeper insights into institutional flows, stablecoin strategies, and trading technology innovation. This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or other professional advice.
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